Coronavirus

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GORDON
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Post by GORDON »

Unknown. Could be pretty small difference, considering so many are still congregating until forced at gunpoint to stop (see that video from two days ago). I also don't know what the numbers of dead would be without Corona aggravating, because they were already dying of diabetes or something. I would like to see all these different numbers.
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Post by Leisher »

GORDON wrote: considering so many are still congregating until forced at gunpoint to stop (see that video from two days ago).
That's not as true as that statement implies.

People are definitely sheltering in place. I've been on the roads daily and nightly and it's much different than any normal day. Additionally, many folks are wearing gloves, masks, and staying 6ft apart. People are carrying hand sanitizer and washing their hands.

Society has dramatically altered their behavior, and it has absolutely had an effect on the outbreak.

Of course, you are right that we simply will never know the full extend either way.
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Post by GORDON »

Lots of responsible people are following the rules and being responsible.

What percentage of the population would you say that is? Doesn't matter. I don't think the lock down changed the infection rate faster than 50%. I have no numbers to back that up, just my hunch.

6 foot separation doesn't matter when everyone is 6 feet apart and touching the same door handle.
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Post by Leisher »

GORDON wrote: What percentage of the population would you say that is?
I believe more than 75% are playing close to the rules. Before you go nuts over that number, notice I said "close". How many do I think are 100% abiding exactly as instructed? Less than 50%, but not dramatically less.

Still, I do think people's behavior altered the infection rate in a substantial way. But you're right, we will never know the actual numbers.
GORDON wrote: 6 foot separation doesn't matter when everyone is 6 feet apart and touching the same door handle.
It does if they are wearing gloves. Hell, they can touch it with bare hands and as long as they wash them before touching their face or some other surface where the virus can be transmitted, then all is well.
GORDON wrote: Today I see a prediction of April 16, with 2644 deaths (range of 1,216 to 4,136).
1224 today, 12 days ahead of the projected peak.
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Post by GORDON »

Leisher wrote:
GORDON wrote: Today I see a prediction of April 16, with 2644 deaths (range of 1,216 to 4,136).
1224 today, 12 days ahead of the projected peak.


.... that's half the projected peak?
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Post by Leisher »

GORDON wrote:
Leisher wrote:
GORDON wrote: Today I see a prediction of April 16, with 2644 deaths (range of 1,216 to 4,136).
1224 today, 12 days ahead of the projected peak.


.... that's half the projected peak?
Close enough?

I don't know. The models I saw only showed 81K dead, and then Trump spoke the next day and was saying 100-200K. Not sure anyone really knows.
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Cakedaddy
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Post by Cakedaddy »

Is that 2644 deaths per day as a peak death count?

And yes, there will be a peak. Because the percentage of people that are being idiots and not taking this serious will either:
1. Get sick and be hospitalized/die.
2. Someone they know will be 1. and they'll be like "Oh, shit" and stop acting like idiots.

I KNOW people in category 2.
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Post by Cakedaddy »

COVID-19 analogy. Someone posted something to the effect of:

A bowl of 100 skittles. Since there is a 3% chance you die from COVID, three of the skittles are poisoned and will kill you. Are you still going to eat a skittle?

Meaning, every time you go outside, you are eating a skittle.

I feel that's a bit off.

Mine would be:

A bowl of 1000 skittles.
230 of them will make you really really sick
50 of them will make you really really sick with lingering/permanent damage to your well being.
20 of them will kill you.
Every time you leave your house, eat a skittle.
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Post by GORDON »

Are there official numbers yet that back up the 50-skittles-leave you crippled (and you weren't already compromised)? I've been waiting for those numbers. All I've heard is, "I heard about a guy."
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Post by GORDON »

Cakedaddy wrote: Is that 2644 deaths per day as a peak death count?
According to that particular source, yes, that the middle of their range of projected deaths, that day. As a peak.
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Post by Cakedaddy »

What's your over/under bet then? What do YOU think the peak will be.

And all of those numbers are my fact based internet percentages. I find it curious that you don't count anyone that has a preexisting condition? "Sure that guy was hit by a bus, but he had diabetes and high blood pressure. He was dying anyways.".

I have high blood pressure and diabetes. But I'm on meds, and have everything under control. Living a relatively normal life. Then I get COVID. It ravages my system and I die from not being able to get oxygen into my system because my lungs are turned to mush. Or, my lungs are running at 40% but still working. SUPER strain on my heart as it has to work overtime keeping things going. I die from a heart attack. COVID didn't kill me?
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Post by GORDON »

Cakedaddy wrote: What's your over/under bet then? What do YOU think the peak will be.
Uh, I think it will be what the official sources are predicting. As of today, that was April 16th. I posted the source, that wasn't just my personal opinion.

I've been adjusting my predictions as new information becomes available. Should I not? Or am I locked in on the day 1 predictions?
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Post by GORDON »

Cakedaddy wrote:
I have high blood pressure and diabetes. But I'm on meds, and have everything under control. Living a relatively normal life. Then I get COVID. It ravages my system and I die from not being able to get oxygen into my system because my lungs are turned to mush. Or, my lungs are running at 40% but still working. SUPER strain on my heart as it has to work overtime keeping things going. I die from a heart attack. COVID didn't kill me?

.... My guesses have, from the beginning, been based on published numbers. .5% of people under 50 will die from COVID. Most of those were already compromised in some way, smokers, cancer, overweight. (MOST, not all. Never said all.) I've said from the beginning that if you're healthy, you have an extremely slim chance of dying from it. This is still correct. I've said from the beginning that I would like to see numbers about permanent lung scarring, because that would suuuuuck. But there haven't been any data beyond anecdote, that I've seen.

I'm not making any of this up. The mortality numbers have been fairly steady since the beginning. You only have a very small chance of dying from COVID-19. Saying "I know a 35 year old guy and he was healthy and just died of corona" does not change the fact that if you're healthy and under 50, you have a .5% chance of dying from corona. Verdict: 5 skittles out of 1000 will kill you, if you're under 50.

There shouldn't be all this scoffing incredulity directed at me. The numbers are all public. And even though I don't personally know anyone who's gotten sick with it, I'm doing my part and staying home, so there shouldn't be anybody claiming I'm trying to spread it and kill their meemaw.
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Post by Cakedaddy »

If only everyone was healthy and under 50, then your numbers would be accurate.

I was asking if you wanted to bet on the over/under for 4/16. Not challenging your source or your thoughts on the source.

Don't forget you were willing to sacrifice lives so your favorite chineese restaurant could stay open!

The way you are writing, I'm interpreting your comments about people dying when they had something else wrong with them as them not dying from COVID. If that's not what you are saying, my bad (or write better!).
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Post by TheCatt »

Cakedaddy wrote: A bowl of 1000 skittles.
230 of them will make you really really sick
50 of them will make you really really sick with lingering/permanent damage to your well being.
20 of them will kill you.
I would cut those in half, or maybe less. A large number of people who get the disease don't get sick. And we're unsure what %age of people don't get it at all (estimates have been ~half for the don't get very sick at all; unknown for the other)
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Post by GORDON »

Cakedaddy wrote: If only everyone was healthy and under 50, then your numbers would be accurate.
1. They aren't my numbers, they are CDC numbers.
2. They are accurate. Most of those who are dying were already compromised by another illness. Also CDC data.
3. If the numbers are wrong, they are wrong on the side of "it's not even as bad as that," because unconfirmed cases aren't counted in the numbers. And there's been evidence that there have been a shitload of unconfirmed cases.

I don't THINK I ever said "I will walk over a path of dead grandparents if it means my local chinese buffet doesn't close." If I did, you are correct, I need to write better. I do remember saying a lot of "this could destroy the economy, and we need to consider if is worth it" before it actually started destroying the economy, though.

So, for your gambling on the over/under.... I don't know? I think it will peak on whatever day they say it will. I hope they're correct about it, it'll start easing in 11 days. I don't care to speculate on that, I literally have no other guess/opinion about it.
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Post by TheCatt »

I think the goal is some level of normalcy in Summer. Building more capacity in the medical centers, having more people immune from exposure, having more + better medications/treatments will all go a long way to minimizing the disease.

I'd like to speculate June, thinks will be much more normal than today, but probably not completely normal.

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Post by Troy »

This is only for one state - I would expect somewhat different outcomes different state populations. Still a lot of cases untested. Still at the beginning of most cases.

Image

source: https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautifu ... _italy_vs/
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Post by TheCatt »

I would guess that SK's #s are the best, due to known lack of testing in both Italy + US (LA)
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