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Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Mon Dec 02, 2019 10:43 am
by TheCatt

4 in a row
The ISM Manufacturing Index registered 48.1 in November, down from 48.3 in October and below market expectations of 49.4.
Anything below 50 represents contraction in a survey that gauges the activities of goods producers.
Particular weakness came in inventories and new orders, while employment also showed reduced expectations.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Wed Dec 04, 2019 4:44 pm
by Leisher

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Wed Dec 04, 2019 4:57 pm
by TheCatt

He wants rich people taxed more.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Wed Dec 04, 2019 4:59 pm
by GORDON
My dollar says that with our current legislature, rich people will never be taxed to any meaningful degree.

If some high percentage actually does become law, money shelters will be abundant and it wont matter.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Wed Dec 04, 2019 5:19 pm
by TheCatt
GORDON wrote:Source of the post My dollar says that with our current legislature, rich people will never be taxed to any meaningful degree.

If some high percentage actually does become law, money shelters will be abundant and it wont matter.

Well, we're 3 senators + 1 president away from 'meaningful' taxes on the rich. How meaningful is the question.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Wed Dec 04, 2019 5:28 pm
by GORDON
My dollar stands. We'll never get back to the tax rates we used to have.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Thu Dec 05, 2019 12:55 am
by TheCatt
GORDON wrote:Source of the post My dollar stands. We'll never get back to the tax rates we used to have.

There are so many levels we "used to have," pick one.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Thu Dec 05, 2019 6:39 am
by GORDON
I can't remember the exact year, but 1940-something levels with a 90% rate on the top earners. That, with no ability to hide money overseas, would make a difference. Anything else would just be pandering... the people making the laws are the ones to be hurt most by high taxation. And they don't have to, so they wont. They'll make all kinds of noises about how they support it, but they know as long as they're three senators and one president short of making it happen, they can make any noises they want.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Thu Dec 05, 2019 8:23 am
by TheCatt
Avoiding that 1940s rate was pretty easy. Corporate tax rates were much lower (around 35 to 40 percent), so people just incorporated

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Thu Dec 05, 2019 12:01 pm
by Leisher
TheCatt wrote:Source of the post

He wants rich people taxed more.


I think it's lip service.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Thu Dec 05, 2019 12:07 pm
by TheCatt
Leisher wrote:Source of the post
TheCatt wrote:Source of the post

He wants rich people taxed more.


I think it's lip service.

He seems to mean it, very much. But as long as the system is the system, it's the system he'll act in.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Thu Dec 05, 2019 1:12 pm
by Leisher
TheCatt wrote:Source of the post
Leisher wrote:Source of the post
TheCatt wrote:Source of the post
He wants rich people taxed more.


I think it's lip service.

He seems to mean it, very much. But as long as the system is the system, it's the system he'll act in.


I don't think he does, or he's very, very ignorant about how the world works. I've seen his "I'll leave it all to charity" bullshit, and I honestly don't know if that is more efficient in wasting money or if it'd be easier to just set it all on fire.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Fri Dec 06, 2019 9:29 am
by TheCatt
Jobs, jobs, jobs!

266k jobs; 41k are GM strike ending, so more like 225k, but still good job growth. Unemployment 3.5%
Average hourly earnings rose by 3.1% from a year ago, while the average workweek held steady at 34.4 hours.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:19 am
by TheCatt
Boston, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle and San Jose, California accounted for 90% of all U.S. high-tech job growth between 2005 and 2017.
...
Combined, the Washington, D.C., metro area; Dallas; Philadelphia; Chicago; and Los Angeles lost more than 45,000 high-tech jobs between 2005 and 2017, according to a new study.

That latter one seems hard for me to believe. There seemed to be growing tech hubs in each of those.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:21 am
by TheCatt
NAFTA replacement moving forward
The Trump administration needs to submit ratifying legislation to Congress for the House to move forward with approving the agreement. Once the White House submits text — it could do so in the coming days — a 90-day window to approve USMCA starts.

The three countries are expected to sign the revised agreement Tuesday.

The deal as signed last year made a few key changes from NAFTA, which took effect in 1994. U.S. farmers got better access to the Canadian dairy market, rules of origin for auto parts became more strict, nearly half of automobile parts had to be produced by workers who make at least $16 an hour and digital trade and intellectual property rules were updated, among other provisions. Still, Democrats fought for measures they said would better prevent outsourcing of U.S. jobs to Mexico.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Wed Dec 11, 2019 2:24 pm
by thibodeaux
wat means?
https://thesoundingline.com/sp-500-buybacks-now-outpace-all-rd-spending-in-the-us/

In other words, the 500 largest companies in the US are now spending 33% more on their stock buyback programs than the entire country is investing in R&D. Cumulatively, buybacks have now outpaced R&D investment for the last five years. From 2014 through 2018, total R&D investment in the US was roughly $2.736 trillion whereas S&P 500 buybacks totaled $2.978 trillion.


Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Wed Dec 11, 2019 2:37 pm
by TheCatt
thibodeaux wrote:Source of the post wat means?
https://thesoundingline.com/sp-500-buybacks-now-outpace-all-rd-spending-in-the-us/

In other words, the 500 largest companies in the US are now spending 33% more on their stock buyback programs than the entire country is investing in R&D. Cumulatively, buybacks have now outpaced R&D investment for the last five years. From 2014 through 2018, total R&D investment in the US was roughly $2.736 trillion whereas S&P 500 buybacks totaled $2.978 trillion.


Oh damn, hadn't seen that stat before.

Feels like a good way to boost short term returns instead of long term returns.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Thu Dec 12, 2019 10:04 am
by Leisher
TheCatt wrote:Source of the post Feels like a good way to boost short term returns instead of long term returns.


Agree.

I'm pro-capitalism, but there's one aspect the consumers cannot control and that's companies doing everything, all the time to boost their bottom line for short term gains to drive the stock up and get their executives massive bonuses.

I won't pretend I have a clue in how to eliminate that issue, but I do believe doing so would more than likely be a boon for the U.S. economy, specifically the consumers' spending power. Without the need to squeeze every penny of profit, R&D would have more investment, there would be more jobs, benefits would be better, etc. More people employed means more people spending money. I would wager it'd also lower the crime rate.

Am I way off base with this belief Catt?

Billionaire warns about debt problems in the 2020s.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Thu Dec 12, 2019 10:19 am
by TheCatt
Leisher wrote:Source of the post but there's one aspect the consumers cannot control and that's companies doing everything, all the time to boost their bottom line for short term gains to drive the stock up and get their executives massive bonuses.

Well, it's not for consumers to control. Technically, the shareholders should be controlling it through the board, as they should be more concerned about long term growth and sustainability, but managers often are not. Agency problem

Gundlach may not be wrong. Any rise in long term interest rates will be an issue, but we have an economy that's basically married to low rates (2% inflation target, lots of long term debt, government debt, etc).

Leisher wrote:Source of the post I won't pretend I have a clue in how to eliminate that issue, but I do believe doing so would more than likely be a boon for the U.S. economy, specifically the consumers' spending power. Without the need to squeeze every penny of profit, R&D would have more investment, there would be more jobs, benefits would be better, etc. More people employed means more people spending money. I would wager it'd also lower the crime rate.

I'm generally of the mindset that capitalism should be concerned with making profits efficiently. And that the government should enforce whatever social policy people want via taxes, wealth redistribution, regulation, etc. For instance, we could accomplish at least some of what you say with a higher minimum wage. Government investment has produced a lot of innovation (I cannot say how efficiently, etc), but it's an option.

Bad Economic Predictions

Posted: Fri Dec 20, 2019 12:30 pm
by Leisher