Bad Economic Predictions

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TheCatt
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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby TheCatt » Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:42 am

Vince wrote:Source of the post I just saw a chart showing that the 30 yr has been dropping pretty steady since the 80's. I can't imagine the agreement to lift the debt ceiling caps helped much.

You've confused me. The yield on the 30 yr has been dropping like a rock. Below 2% for the first time ever today/last night (iirc; At the very least, below 2% for the first time in generations).

Lifting the debt ceiling caps would mean putting more 30 year debt out (more supply), which in normal times, would depress the prices, raising the yields.
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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby Vince » Thu Aug 15, 2019 9:01 am

I don't dispute the yield is dropping quickly recently. Just pointing out that it's been dropping for a long time.

And I agree that in normal times this would raise the yields. My concern is that our economy (world economy in general) is in the end stages of the cancer that has been spiraling debt. Though now that I think about it... never mind. I can't wrap my head around it this early in the AM (and that's after two cups of coffee already).
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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby TheCatt » Thu Aug 15, 2019 9:22 am

Vince wrote:Source of the post My concern is that our economy (world economy in general) is in the end stages of the cancer that has been spiraling debt. Though now that I think about it... never mind. I can't wrap my head around it this early in the AM (and that's after two cups of coffee already).

So 1990s to present Japan? Yeah, there's certainly an argument there.

Vince wrote:Source of the post Just pointing out that it's been dropping for a long time.

Oh yeah, we're in a 40 year bond bull market. Sadly the primary way out is painful. Due to the inflation issues of the late 70s and early 80s, the Fed has been trying to get a lid on inflation ever since, with a 2% target. So over time, they've done what they can to keep future inflation muted. The end result is that if people finally believe in muted future inflation rates, then bond rates go down, too. (I'm simplifying here, but basically true)
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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby TheCatt » Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:24 am

Inversion reverted after 1 day, as the entire yield curve dropped, with the 2 year dropping more than the 10 year. There are some yellow flags in the economy (housing starts, car sales), but overall things are OK. Unless people get spooked out and this becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby TheCatt » Sun Aug 18, 2019 10:43 am

Trump administrations says that things that totally happened "did not happen"

The White House trade advisor called it a “flat curve” because the spread was too narrow. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note dropped to 1.623% Wednesday, briefly below the 2-year rate of 1.634%.

“An inverted yield curve requires a big spread between the short and long,” Navarro said. “All we have had is a flat curve. It’s a flat curve which is a very weak signal of any possibility.”

Investors, however, did not seem to interpret the yield curve that way on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 800 points or about 3% in its worst performance of 2019 as investors grew spooked about the U.S. economy.
...
“In this case, the flat curve is actually the result of a very strong Trump economy,” he said.

Nothing he is saying is true. Literally, nothing.
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Postby Leisher » Sun Aug 18, 2019 11:15 am

I’m reminded of Armageddon.

“You should know the President’s scientific advisor believes a nuclear weapon will destroy this thing.”
“I was at MIT with the President’s advisor and you don’t want to trust a man who got a D- in Astrophysics. The President’s advisors are wrong, I’m right.”

That was purely from memory, how’d I do?
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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby Vince » Mon Aug 19, 2019 6:36 am

Nothing shocking here. Trump is Trump. His people will say stupid stuff to keep him from throwing a fit. Everyone realizes they're dealing with a child.
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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby TheCatt » Thu Aug 22, 2019 10:22 am

Manufacturing sector declines (barely)

The U.S. manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers index) was 49.9 in August, down from 50.4 in July and below the neutral 50.0 threshold for the first time since September 2009, according to IHS Markit.

“Manufacturing companies continued to feel the impact of slowing global economic conditions, with new export sales falling at the fastest pace since August 2009,” Tim Moore, economics associate director at Markit, said in a statement on Thursday.

Manufacturers continued to reduce their inventories this month, which was mainly contributed to the concerns about the demand outlook, according to Markit.

U.S. overall business activity growth also fell to a three-month low as the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index dropped to 50.9 in August, signalling a “renewed slowdown” in the rate of U.S. private sector business activity growth, Markit said.
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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby TheCatt » Fri Aug 23, 2019 9:50 am

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Postby GORDON » Fri Aug 23, 2019 10:15 am

Oh no how will they roll the army into Honk Kong without american made cars.
Fuuuuuuck YOU.

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Postby TheCatt » Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:11 am



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Postby GORDON » Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:13 am

If Trump is against it then I am now for bringing in more drugs from china to kill people.
Fuuuuuuck YOU.

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Postby Leisher » Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:40 am

What did I wake up to?

CNBC's article actually discusses what I think is the biggest issue.

White House trade advisor Peter Navarro said last week there are still many “structural issues” the U.S. needs to settle with China before they can reach a deal. These issues include cyber intrusion into U.S. business networks, forced technology transfer, intellectual property theft and currency manipulation, he said.


YES! Why isn't the whole world joining to force China to stop being shitty? They're still making CFCs and nobody seems to give a fuck that they're the world's #1 polluter. Nope, the world only reacts if the U.S. pulls out of a toothless and one sided Kyoto Accord.
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Postby GORDON » Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:40 am

If Trump does something, it's bad. Full stop.
Fuuuuuuck YOU.

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Postby TheCatt » Fri Aug 23, 2019 12:23 pm

Leisher wrote:Source of the post What did I wake up to?

CNBC's article actually discusses what I think is the biggest issue.

White House trade advisor Peter Navarro said last week there are still many “structural issues” the U.S. needs to settle with China before they can reach a deal. These issues include cyber intrusion into U.S. business networks, forced technology transfer, intellectual property theft and currency manipulation, he said.


YES! Why isn't the whole world joining to force China to stop being shitty? They're still making CFCs and nobody seems to give a fuck that they're the world's #1 polluter. Nope, the world only reacts if the U.S. pulls out of a toothless and one sided Kyoto Accord.

Seriously. Where's Europe in all of this?
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Bad Economic Predictions

Postby TheCatt » Fri Aug 23, 2019 12:23 pm

GORDON wrote:Source of the post If Trump does something, it's bad. Full stop.

Yes, we heard you the first 1,000 times.
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Postby TheCatt » Fri Aug 23, 2019 12:23 pm

China started this war in the 80s, and it's sad that we've been complicit this long.
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Postby Leisher » Fri Aug 23, 2019 12:26 pm

I use AlienVault at work to monitor my network. It's constantly scanning internally and registering when external parties scan or try to gain access to my network. You know what two countries are almost exclusively responsible for that traffic? Russia and China.

Everyone fucking knows those two do this shit, so why is nobody doing anything about it?

Trump is easily one of the largest and most divisive assholes on the planet, but isn't this exactly when everyone should be bandwagoning against China? He can take all the blame if it goes south. He can have all credit taken away easily if it goes well. He's the perfect foil to finally curb China's behavior. I really wish Europe and the political left would realize that.

TheCatt wrote:Source of the post China started this war in the 80s, and it's sad that we've been complicit this long.


Yep.
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Postby TheCatt » Fri Aug 23, 2019 12:30 pm

Leisher wrote:Source of the post It's constantly scanning internally and registering when external parties scan or try to gain access to my network. You know what two countries are almost exclusively responsible for that traffic? Russia and China.

I remember when I ran my own firewall 15 years ago, and it was the same (albeit much less in volume) story.
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Postby GORDON » Fri Aug 23, 2019 2:00 pm

TheCatt wrote:Source of the post
GORDON wrote:Source of the post If Trump does something, it's bad. Full stop.

Yes, we heard you the first 1,000 times.


Was that the 1001st time? Fuck, we should have celebrated the 1000th.
Fuuuuuuck YOU.


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