Bad Economic Predictions

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TheCatt
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by TheCatt »

We ended up sticking with our 19 year old fridge that basically works fine.
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Cakedaddy
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Post by Cakedaddy »

Yikes. That's old. Could be an argument that it's efficiency is gone and getting a new one would be cost effective. What are you paying to run that thing vs buying a new one.
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Post by GORDON »

We got a new fridge, and I put the old one in the garage because I still liked it. Now it acts as chicken feed storage, and freezer overflow because everything from Costco is so damned big.
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Cakedaddy wrote: Yikes. That's old. Could be an argument that it's efficiency is gone and getting a new one would be cost effective. What are you paying to run that thing vs buying a new one.
I don't know. Our electric bill is low enough that I don't care. I can't imagine it's more than $20/month given how low our winter electric bills are (we have gas heat).
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TheCatt
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Post by TheCatt »

Of course, Trump levying tariffs is just a wild card.

This will probably lead to other countries levying tariffs on us. None of which is good news. Will probably harm the economy somewhat, extent TBD based on retaliation.
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Post by GORDON »

He'll cut foreign aid to countries that retaliate, to make up for it.

He don't play.
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GORDON wrote: He'll cut foreign aid to countries that retaliate, to make up for it.

He don't play.
I'm not aware we give a lot of foreign aid to Canada?
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Post by GORDON »

I don't know, but I wouldn't doubt it.

But I was referring to retaliation to tariffs in general, not specifically Canada.
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Post by Vince »

TheCatt wrote: Of course, Trump levying tariffs is just a wild card.

This will probably lead to other countries levying tariffs on us. None of which is good news. Will probably harm the economy somewhat, extent TBD based on retaliation.
Even if there is no retaliation, these always seem to hurt more than they help. The sugar tariff being one of the easiest to point to. Trump even complained about how Nabisco is now making Oreos in Canada while completely missing the reason as to why. Sugar tariffs make it cost ineffective to produce them here. For every job saved in the sugar plantation industry, four have been lost in the confectionery world. And that's with something as labor intensive as raising sugar cane. Imagine the ratio with mostly automated industries like steel.

Just yesterday I saw a story on Fox about how the solar power industry (sales and installation) has taken a pretty big hit since Trump initiated the solar panel tariff. They're losing customers that are getting priced out.

Manufacturing jobs aren't coming back. Many more are lost to automation than to other countries(85% vs 15%). A lot of the supporting jobs will now be lost. Trump may know something about real estate, but I know more about trade and I've never worked in the field.
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If anything, Trump should be fighting for symmetrical market access, which is sorely lacking in many areas. But these tariffs are simply dumb.
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Post by Leisher »

I'm not a fan of tariffs.
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Leisher wrote: I'm not a fan of tariffs.
Because they're dumb.
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Post by Leisher »

“Every record been destroyed or falsified, books rewritten, pictures repainted, statues, street building renamed, every date altered. The process is continuing day by day. History stops. Nothing exists except endless present in which the Party is right.”
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Post by TheCatt »

Hypothetically, if a trade war ensues...
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Post by Leisher »

“Every record been destroyed or falsified, books rewritten, pictures repainted, statues, street building renamed, every date altered. The process is continuing day by day. History stops. Nothing exists except endless present in which the Party is right.”
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Post by TheCatt »

Gates concluded his AMA response by saying, "Despite this prediction of bumps ahead, I am quite optimistic about how innovation and capitalism will improve the situation for humans everywhere."
Here's hoping capitalism survives.
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Post by TheCatt »

TheCatt wrote: If anything, Trump should be fighting for symmetrical market access, which is sorely lacking in many areas. But these tariffs are simply dumb.
Elon Musk agrees with me.
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TheCatt wrote: Of course, Trump levying tariffs is just a wild card.

This will probably lead to other countries levying tariffs on us. None of which is good news. Will probably harm the economy somewhat, extent TBD based on retaliation.
Well, fuck
President Donald Trump announced Thursday his plans for tariffs on up to $60 billion annually in Chinese imports, designed as retaliation for an administration report that will outline Beijing’s violation of U.S. intellectual property rights.
I wonder how the markets feel about that.

Image
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Post by Leisher »

China firing back.
The decision to target $3 billion in U.S. imports is significant, "but it's not a lot in terms of the total U.S.-China relationship," said economist Tony Nash, who is CEO and founder of data analytics firm Complete Intelligence.

Chinese imports from the U.S. are expected to hit $172 billion this year, he pointed out.
That's a better response than I expected. I wonder if this is their attempt to get Trump to the table to discuss things?

I will say that the one positive about this whole thing is China being called out for allowing the pirate market to flourish there. Every piece of software that cheaters use in games comes from China. I mentioned the illegal streaming services running from there now. And the list goes on...

Hey, is it true to do business in China corporations used to have to reveal how they make their products?
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Post by TheCatt »

Leisher wrote: I will say that the one positive about this whole thing is China being called out for allowing the pirate market to flourish there. Every piece of software that cheaters use in games comes from China. I mentioned the illegal streaming services running from there now.
Yeah, no one else ever stood up to China, so finally.
Leisher wrote: Hey, is it true to do business in China corporations used to have to reveal how they make their products?
Yes. This was a reaction from China earlier in the week.
Speaking Tuesday at the end of the annual National People’s Congress, Premier Li Keqiang said that China wants to avoid a trade war and that the government plans to further open the manufacturing sector -- and that it won’t force foreign companies to transfer technology to domestic ones while doing so.
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