Bad Economic Predictions

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TheCatt
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by TheCatt »

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GORDON
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Post by GORDON »

So, they don't do as well without a trade deal that favors their side? Huh. That just defies logic.
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Leisher
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by Leisher »

“Every record been destroyed or falsified, books rewritten, pictures repainted, statues, street building renamed, every date altered. The process is continuing day by day. History stops. Nothing exists except endless present in which the Party is right.”
thibodeaux
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by thibodeaux »

"Don't let the market become any more illiquid than it already is," Trump tweeted. "Stop with the 50 B's. Feel the market, don't just go by meaningless numbers. Good luck!"
Seems like, to me, it would be a good plan (for Trump's re-election chances anyway) to let the market correct NOW, then roar back by early 2020.

I guess maybe he hopes if the Fed stays off the brakes the bubble won't pop until after the next election.
TheCatt
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by TheCatt »

thibodeaux wrote: to let the market correct NOW, then roar back by early 2020.
Recessions of the past few decades have averaged about 1 year. Getting back to full employment has taken a few years. So if the recession were 2019, we'd be 'good' again around 2022-2023
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thibodeaux
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Post by thibodeaux »

Yeah but do things have to be back to “good” or is “getting better” sufficient?
TheCatt
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Post by TheCatt »

thibodeaux wrote: Yeah but do things have to be back to “good” or is “getting better” sufficient?
Good. I don't remember anyone being very excited about the economy in 2002, 2003, 2010, or 2011
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TheCatt
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by TheCatt »

You have $100, I take $5. Are you OK when you have $96?
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thibodeaux
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Post by thibodeaux »

No but we are talking about the average voter who doesn’t remember anything :P
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by GORDON »

I know the economy will.never be as amazing as it was under the God Obama.
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thibodeaux
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Post by thibodeaux »

GORDON wrote: I know the economy will.never be as amazing as it was under the God Obama.
PBUH
TheCatt
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Post by TheCatt »

Fed raises rates, as expected. But they left in language about next year's raises, but added a bit of language about being more dovish on raises.

Market down on the news, had been expecting the Fed to be a bit more cautious in their outlook.
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TheCatt
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by TheCatt »

Markets down again.

I would use this as an opportunity to look at some stocks that may have bright futures but have been dropped. If you're into risk, AMZN might be a decent buy (currently at) 1440 or lower, 30% below its peak earlier this year.

AAPL down 31%, testing it's year lows.
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TheCatt
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by TheCatt »

TheCatt wrote: Markets down again.

I would use this as an opportunity to look at some stocks that may have bright futures but have been dropped. If you're into risk, AMZN might be a decent buy (currently at) 1440 or lower, 30% below its peak earlier this year.

AAPL down 31%, testing it's year lows.
Down even further with AMZN touching 1315; AAPL down to 148; DOW down 18.5% (22,000).
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Post by Leisher »

“Every record been destroyed or falsified, books rewritten, pictures repainted, statues, street building renamed, every date altered. The process is continuing day by day. History stops. Nothing exists except endless present in which the Party is right.”
TheCatt
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Post by TheCatt »

Depending on the initial state of your tax levels, that is.
Our empirical findings show that the tax multiplier is essentially zero under relatively low/moderate initial tax rate levels and more negative as the initial tax rate and the size of the change in the tax rate increase.
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TheCatt
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by TheCatt »

TheCatt wrote:
TheCatt wrote: Markets down again.

I would use this as an opportunity to look at some stocks that may have bright futures but have been dropped. If you're into risk, AMZN might be a decent buy (currently at) 1440 or lower, 30% below its peak earlier this year.

AAPL down 31%, testing it's year lows.
Down even further with AMZN touching 1315; AAPL down to 148; DOW down 18.5% (22,000).
And back to 1500 1 week later. That's some awesome volatility.
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TheCatt
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by TheCatt »

Tesla missed shipping goals for new cars; Netflix missed subscription targets, but more importantly Chinese manufacturing fell into contraction
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by Leisher »

TheCatt wrote: Netflix missed subscription targets
I mean, how do you go up from "everyone"?
“Every record been destroyed or falsified, books rewritten, pictures repainted, statues, street building renamed, every date altered. The process is continuing day by day. History stops. Nothing exists except endless present in which the Party is right.”
TheCatt
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by TheCatt »

Leisher wrote:
TheCatt wrote: Netflix missed subscription targets
I mean, how do you go up from "everyone"?
On the other hand, they are doing something smart, and ending their Apple tax for subscription revenue
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