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Forum: Games Topic: WTF? started by: Leisher Posted by Leisher on Dec. 12 2007,11:47
Got an email from a family member today who met with a web person for...well, I honestly don't know...but here's the email I got from them after the meeting:QUOTE I met with the web guy from BG. Geek like you  Any how, he told me about a 3D site that is ripe for investment – < www.secondlife.com > – he said at this moment there is an estimated 12 to 14% membership and within the next 5 years that figure will swell to 85% or more. He told me the opportunities are endless i.e. offering services or product the 3D people (ADVARS) will need. I’d like you to look at the web site and give me your opinion. Now this is from someone with ZERO computer expertise so I'm positive there is something lost in the translation, thus I won't even begin to comment on the "investment opportunities". However, let me address what I can only assume are membership (paying accounts) figures. (Sidenote: I'm pretty sure "ADVARS" is "avatars".) Second Life was launched in 2003 and they claims "millions of citizens". 12-14% of "millions" in a good profit. However, one wonders if "millions" is truly accurate. I created a character there once and played it twice, am I counted among those millions? I'd bet a paycheck that I am. And 12-14% to 85% in 5 years? Again, this game has been around since 2003, we are days from 2008...that's 5 years. What exactly have they done that's going to increase their membership by that amount? Let's face it, this is the computer age and games don't get more popular as they get older. They start to show their age and people start to get bored and leave. In Second Life's case, we're not talking about the most user friendly game. In fact, I'd call it a pyramid scheme in MMO form. Follow me here... You've got a really, really small percentage of Second Life's population that can actually write code to create items. These are the only people who can make cash (real or virtual) in that game. Yes, there are exceptions such as men/women willing to cyber for cash, but you get my point in terms of who has the true cash earning potential. Everyone else is at the bottom of the pyramid. Sure, there's the promise of millions, you've heard the stories, but what percentage of those "millions" of subscribers actually make any money let alone enough to be life altering? How is that game not like a pyramid scheme? Other MMOs don't vary much from Second Life except you know what it is when you go in. You're paying for a theme and for consistency. You're playing for an experience, not to hope for a good time. Another negative for people like Cakedaddy is that corporations have a HUGE presence in Second Life. There are no McDonald's in World of Warcraft. And the difference between WoW and SL? SL claims "millions" with 12-14% paying members, while WoW has 9 million members and a 100% rate of subscription. I think Second Life will exist for some time as a "niche" product, but I think they're delusional about how big they can become. It's been 5 years, an eternity in this business. If it hasn't happened by now, it's not going to happen. Posted by GORDON on Dec. 12 2007,11:52
Uh, that email is written like spam.
Posted by Leisher on Dec. 12 2007,11:59
Yeah, I know. Oh, ignore the "", that must be a smiley that didn't transfer to the forum.It is a legit email though. Tis indeed from a family member and I've been continuing the discussion with them, explaining why it's ass and even setting lunch plans for tomorrow to discuss. Posted by Malcolm on Dec. 12 2007,12:12
From many things I've read & seen, Second Life is a fucking joke.
Posted by GORDON on Dec. 12 2007,12:24
Might be a joke, but it is popular.
Posted by thibodeaux on Dec. 12 2007,12:25
I know a guy who claims he was making thousands of dollars per month running a casino in second life.
Posted by Leisher on Dec. 12 2007,12:38
It is a joke. I'm dead serious about it being a pyramid scheme. In a normal MMO, the developers have designed the experience for those who enjoy a particular theme. ALL of your play is guaranteed based on a monthly subscription fee. There are no hidden costs. Now go check out the Second Life homepage. What's that prominently featured on the left side? A link to turn your real dollars to Second Life dollars. Their whole marketing campaign can be summed up as: "Come play Second Life and you could make enough money to quit your real job!" QUOTE I know a guy who claims he was making thousands of dollars per month running a casino in second life. I absolutely believe that. What's the saying about poker? If you're at a table and you can't spot the sucker in the first hour, you're the sucker. Well guess what Second Life players, the vast majority of you are the suckers. Posted by Malcolm on Dec. 12 2007,13:49
So, what's this thing about being able to code up things for other players or some such shyte?
Posted by TheCatt on Dec. 12 2007,13:55
(thibodeaux @ Dec. 12 2007,15:25) QUOTE I know a guy who claims he was making thousands of dollars per month running a casino in second life. They shut those down though, right? Posted by TheCatt on Dec. 12 2007,13:57
So some woman supposedly made a million by buying/selling land there. Basically, by being first, then selling to the suckers who came later.What kills me is that respectable businesses (IBM, Coke, etc) are pouring money in there because they are afraid of being left out or left behind. But there's so little happening there. Maybe one day something like this will be relevant. But that day is not here. TPR, haven't you been on SL before? Posted by Malcolm on Dec. 12 2007,14:12
(TheCatt @ Dec. 12 2007,15:57) QUOTE What kills me is that respectable businesses (IBM, Coke, etc) are pouring money in there because they are afraid of being left out or left behind. Corporations are often ausitic in relatively new mediums. Posted by GORDON on Dec. 12 2007,18:09
(Malcolm @ Dec. 12 2007,16:49) QUOTE So, what's this thing about being able to code up things for other players or some such shyte? I believe you can "invent" things with some scripting language. I don't really know anything beyond that. Posted by Malcolm on Dec. 12 2007,18:34
(GORDON @ Dec. 12 2007,20:09) QUOTE (Malcolm @ Dec. 12 2007,16:49) QUOTE So, what's this thing about being able to code up things for other players or some such shyte? I believe you can "invent" things with some scripting language. I don't really know anything beyond that. Are you shitting me? That's ballsy as hell, provided the scripting language isn't ass. Posted by Leisher on Dec. 12 2007,18:45
QUOTE What kills me is that respectable businesses (IBM, Coke, etc) are pouring money in there because they are afraid of being left out or left behind. Their attempts seem to be token gestures though. It's like someone in their IT department or Marketing plays Second Life and suggested that "It's the next big thing" and they need to be visible there now. It just all seems so half-assed. Nothing different than other companies' attempts to reach the gaming audience. How many games have we seen based on characters? M&M, The 7up Spot, the Noid, the Burger King, etc. Corporations need to realize that gamers are a different breed. "Product placement" won't work in a game like it does in movies. In fact, it's more likely to piss gamers off. I think their safest bets are in game ad placement in games where it makes sense, like billboards in urban environments, and sponsorships. With a sponsorship, they could help offset the cost of game development and in return, they could have their logo on the box in a corner, ditto for the manual, a splash screen during the opening developer's splash screens, the ability to insert coupons into the box, etc. I know that might sound shitty to some, but why not go that route? Every other form of entertainment has so why should we expect games to be different. Posted by Leisher on Dec. 12 2007,18:50
QUOTE I believe you can "invent" things with some scripting language. I don't really know anything beyond that. All true. The whole point of Second Life is that it's supposed to be completely customizable. Therein lies my thoughts about it being a pyramid scheme. How many of their "millions" have the actual skill to produce something that can earn them cash? The rest of the players are the ones who will be buying that product. And how do they earn in world cash without true in world jobs and such? They buy virtual dollars with real world dollars. Again, I point you to the Second Life home page where a huge icon on the left allows for such transactions. The vast majority of players fund the top tier people and have no chance of ever become a top tier person despite their dreams of doing so. Even if they practice and learn, by the time they can make something most ideas will have been used up and/or the game will be vastly less popular, thus no money to be made. Pyramid scheme. Posted by GORDON on Dec. 12 2007,18:58
(Malcolm @ Dec. 12 2007,21:34) QUOTE (GORDON @ Dec. 12 2007,20:09) QUOTE (Malcolm @ Dec. 12 2007,16:49) QUOTE So, what's this thing about being able to code up things for other players or some such shyte? I believe you can "invent" things with some scripting language. I don't really know anything beyond that. Are you shitting me? That's ballsy as hell, provided the scripting language isn't ass. Well, I'm sure casino gaming machines weren't in the original specs, but someone invented some to use the real SL money... Posted by Malcolm on Dec. 12 2007,19:12
Yeah, there's definitely something Amwayesque about this.
Posted by Cakedaddy on Dec. 12 2007,19:18
I dunno about the pyramid scheme thing. I think that's taking it a bit far. Everything you say is true with the many paying the few. But, it's more of a big graphical chat room where people can buy and wear levi's jeans and members only jackets. So, if you create something people like and want to wear, ride, drive, whaterver, then you can get paid. But doesn't a pyramid scheme have a promise of a big payoff? Granted, they say you can quite your RL job and play the game. But they don't promise a payoff if you recruite 10 other people to play.
Posted by thibodeaux on Dec. 13 2007,04:31
(TheCatt @ Dec. 12 2007,16:55) QUOTE (thibodeaux @ Dec. 12 2007,15:25) QUOTE I know a guy who claims he was making thousands of dollars per month running a casino in second life. They shut those down though, right? Yeah. He was really bummed. But he thinks that some people have already found a loophole. He's also getting into the land business like the Chinese lady. He's always talking about her. Posted by Leisher on Dec. 13 2007,05:28
QUOTE I dunno about the pyramid scheme thing. I think that's taking it a bit far. Everything you say is true with the many paying the few. But, it's more of a big graphical chat room where people can buy and wear levi's jeans and members only jackets. So, if you create something people like and want to wear, ride, drive, whaterver, then you can get paid. But doesn't a pyramid scheme have a promise of a big payoff? Granted, they say you can quite your RL job and play the game. But they don't promise a payoff if you recruite 10 other people to play. You're right, there is no active official campaign to bring in new folks, but there is a drive. You don't see Second Life running ads and such, but I'm always hearing about how I should join and the main reason is never things like "it's beautiful, well designed, fun, etc." it's typically something along the lines of "You can make real money there". Posted by TPRJones on Dec. 13 2007,21:17
It's got an EXTREMELY robust player economy. While it's true only a very few actually use it to make large amounts of money, calling it a pyramid scheme is misleading. It's a pyramid scheme in the same way that any economy is a pyramid scheme: whatever system you set up only a few will be successful with it and amass large quantities of capital. Most people are just part of the monetary churn. And about three-quarters of the incoming churn of in-game cash is coming from the company itself (they make tons on selling server resources, the bleeding of corporate cash into the in-game economy is a loss leader for them).I did indeed play for awhile, and I made a couple of hundred dollars in the process. The scripting language is only slightly ass, but you can get it to do a lot of interesting things. As to money makers in the game, the biggest are definately the virtual real estate agents. Some of them are paying the company running SL several thousand a month, but making much much more in rent and property sales. Below them you've got people making various types of objects (mostly clothing and skins, and more than a few furry avatars), people selling gadets of various types (vehicles and poseball systems, for example), and people selling various types of entertainment (gambling halls, nightclubs, DJs, and of course hookers). My cash came mostly from gadgets and clothing. I made a few interesting items that sold a few hundred units at reasonable prices (a trampoline, a globe of the earth showing day and night accurately with orbiting moon showing accurate phases, a few interesting moving sculptures, a sunflower that followed the in-game sun, a spotlight system for nightclubs). I had some popular cothing that hadn't been done before (a toolbelt, color-changing sunglasses). But the biggest chunk came from a simple gadget that swept a plot of land looking for bugs and malicious scripts, then reporting items and locations to the owner. You'd be surprised at the level of spying on each other that people in that game are doing. I sold a lot of those for a hefty sum. As far as player-developed content goes, SL is lightyears ahead of anything else. It even beat NWN all to hell and gone (but then SL isn't really a game per se, so it's not really a fair comparison). Yes it's about 60% porn and another 20% crap, but so is internet and we still use it. (For more on that bit about the company making much of their income selling server space, check out < this link >. A paying account gets a tiny plot of land if so desired, but if you want to build anything of any real size - and most people buying land do - you start forking over more cash. Last time I was on there were over 1000 regions, which is easily over three-hundred grand a month just in server space fees.) Posted by TPRJones on Dec. 13 2007,21:20
(Leisher @ Dec. 12 2007,18:50) QUOTE The rest of the players are the ones who will be buying that product. And how do they earn in world cash without true in world jobs and such? They buy virtual dollars with real world dollars. Some do, but most don't. Linden Labs actually provides the largest influx of in-game cash. Linden Labs pays every active player a weekly stipend for being active. |