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Forum: General Stuff Topic: Middle East Dead Pool? started by: Leisher Posted by Leisher on Feb. 17 2011,21:01
Ok, first Egypt fell. Then Iran's protesters have shown back up again. Now < Bahrain > and < Libya > have gotten bloody. Plus, there's been rumblings in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and other places. Should we start a dead pool over which country's government will fall next? While we're discussing it, are we seeing something historic here? I mean, most would say "yes, the toppling of governments", but I mean something more important to the planet. Are we seeing democracy gaining a foothold and winning where armies have failed? If so, who gets credit? Has it been U.S. policy in the area? Doubtful. Is it the internet? No other tool has ever shown so many "alternatives". Hell, is it even linked to anti-Western speeches, news reports, etc.? Think about it. Who knows? All I do know is that there are a weird number of similarities between Japan pre-WWII and the Middle East today. Posted by GORDON on Feb. 17 2011,21:05
I have been watching events unfold there but I feel like I don't have enough information to have an opinion. I personally believe that a benevolent, secular dictatorship is preferable to a democracy that votes hardline muslim. I don't know anything about either side of the issue. I certainly can't count on any MSM outlets to tell me the facts.
Posted by Leisher on Feb. 17 2011,21:29
QUOTE I personally believe that a benevolent, secular dictatorship is preferable to a democracy that votes hardline muslim. I know where you're coming from there. I'd hate to see Jordan change its ways since it seems to be the most modern Middle Eastern country. Still, when I posted these questions, I was thinking more along the lines that hardliner Muslims would be getting shown the door too. Not particularly in this round of upheaval, but at some point. That's why I mentioned the Japan comparison. Posted by GORDON on Feb. 18 2011,05:00
(Leisher @ Feb. 18 2011,00:29) QUOTE QUOTE I personally believe that a benevolent, secular dictatorship is preferable to a democracy that votes hardline muslim. I know where you're coming from there. I'd hate to see Jordan change its ways since it seems to be the most modern Middle Eastern country. Just to nitpick, Israel is by far the most modern middle eastern country. Posted by Leisher on Feb. 18 2011,06:02
QUOTE Just to nitpick, Israel is by far the most modern middle eastern country. You are nitpicking because you know that I mean of the Islamic/Muslim countries. Israel doesn't have a dictator. Still, I think Israel is probably the most overlooked country on the planet. The Middle East is always in the news and Israel is always mentioned like a separate entity. It's not a geographic thing, but a cultural thing. Even when "regular folk" discuss the Middle East: "They should just nuke the whole damn Middle East and then we wouldn't have to deal with this shit...I mean, except Israel." Posted by unkbill on Feb. 18 2011,07:55
(GORDON @ Feb. 17 2011,21:05) QUOTE I have been watching events unfold there but I feel like I don't have enough information to have an opinion. I personally believe that a benevolent, secular dictatorship is preferable to a democracy that votes hardline muslim. I don't know anything about either side of the issue. I certainly can't count on any MSM outlets to tell me the facts. I agree. Not all the dominos have fallen. If anyone has a specific question they would like asked. I keep in touch with the Egytian student that stayed with me a year ago. He was very happy when the gov fell. I asked him what he thought about the Iranians being shot for attacking like Egyptians but didn't get much of a responce. Posted by GORDON on Feb. 18 2011,08:12
1. Why do they hate Mubarak? Was he elected, or what?2. What do they intend to replace him with? Posted by unkbill on Feb. 18 2011,08:15
He may have been elected at one time but he has been in power for 20 years. They think he and his family stole around 3 billion dollars and they want it back. Then he pretty much had his police and people would come up missing.
Posted by Malcolm on Feb. 18 2011,08:44
(GORDON @ Feb. 18 2011,10:12) QUOTE 1. Why do they hate Mubarak? Was he elected, or what? 2. What do they intend to replace him with? 1. As has been pointed out. He was elected once. He just kind of stuck around after that. 2. If history is any guide, one corrupt leader will be replaced by one or more other corrupt leaders. Posted by TPRJones on Feb. 18 2011,16:21
Egypt is a little unique in that nearly everyone serves a term in the military. Because of that the military was more aligned with the people than with Mubarak when it came down to it, and his orders to start shooting protesters was ignored. If that had not been the case, then it would have been a completely different - and much bloodier - situation.I think the primary root of all this grumbling for change is due mostly to the social internet. Most of these countries have very young populations, and most of those kids are heavily into technology. That means the internet and twitter and facebook, and that means absorbing certain ideas about personal freedom and what a government should be like. It's pretty much inevitable that every country in the region will either go democratic or turn into a black hole cut off from the rest of the world - like North Korea is - within the next ten years. My money is on the former. But very few will be as smooth as Egypt has been so far. Lots of these kids are going to die before this is done. Posted by GORDON on Feb. 18 2011,16:37
I think the next middle eastern country to rebel against their tyrant masters for more freedom will be San Francisco.Rimshot. Posted by Leisher on Feb. 22 2011,06:47
< It looks like Libya is next and rather quickly. >If Libya does fall, does this strengthen the folks in Bahrain and Iran? < Also, China is now seeing unrest. > Posted by Malcolm on Feb. 22 2011,09:10
QUOTE Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi called Tuesday for his supporters to take back the streets from anti-government protesters and vowed to fight on and die as a "martyr." How does that line go ... oh yeah... QUOTE Come down, get off your fucking cross. We need the fucking space to nail the next fool martyr. QUOTE Also, China is now seeing unrest. I got one word for that -- Tiananmen. The military would need to either be part of or lead any revolution in China. And their generals/colonels/etc. aren't the most level-headed folk. China may be a bit. Much like the Russians, they'll realize how much their gov't is screwing over their livelihood. Then all the fear the general populous has will quickly turn to anger. Posted by Leisher on Feb. 22 2011,09:52
I wasn't implying China was going to fold to protesters. I just thought it was interesting how much civil unrest the Egyptian situation has inspired.
Posted by thibodeaux on Feb. 22 2011,10:02
(unkbill @ Feb. 18 2011,11:15) QUOTE he and his family stole around 3 billion dollars and they want it back. Who is "< they >?" QUOTE The agreement also resulted in the United States committing to several billion dollars worth of annual subsidies to the governments of both Israel and Egypt, subsidies which continue to this day, and are given as a mixture of grants and aid packages committed to purchasing U.S. materiel. From 1979 (the year of the peace agreement) to 1997, Egypt received military aid of US$1.3 billion annually, which also helped modernize the Egyptian military.[16] (This is beyond economic, humanitarian, and other aid, which has totaled more than US$25 billion.)
Posted by Malcolm on Feb. 22 2011,11:05
(Leisher @ Feb. 22 2011,11:52) QUOTE I wasn't implying China was going to fold to protesters. I just thought it was interesting how much civil unrest the Egyptian situation has inspired. Every chain reaction has that first domino. Posted by TPRJones on Feb. 23 2011,17:53
No way will China fall anytime soon. They're having a revolution, certainly, but it's cultural in nature and the government is bending to it in many ways. China will keep being China pretty much forever. Maybe in a generation or so it will be completely different than it is now, but it'll be a smooth transition rather than a sudden one.
Posted by GORDON on Feb. 23 2011,20:28
(TPRJones @ Feb. 23 2011,20:53) QUOTE No way will China fall anytime soon. They're having a revolution, certainly, but it's cultural in nature and the government is bending to it in many ways. China will keep being China pretty much forever. Maybe in a generation or so it will be completely different than it is now, but it'll be a smooth transition rather than a sudden one. Is China China just because there are so many people? Posted by TPRJones on Feb. 23 2011,20:46
It has more to do with their history and their approach to change. As a society they have a lot more patience in waiting for gradual yet inevitable changes to come over time than we in the West do. And then there's also some pride in the long mostly unbroken history of the nation as a whole. It's changed, it's been conquered from time to time, but in the end it just keeps on being China. One might say they tend to be rather "zen" about political change there. At least compared to the rest of the world. As long as the leadership keeps the oppression down to a level of low annoyance they'll be able to keep it up until the younger generations that have grown up with more contact with Western ideals finally get old and come to power, whereupon things will slowly change from within. Posted by Malcolm on Feb. 24 2011,08:45
We kind of fucked up looking after them post WWII.
Posted by GORDON on Mar. 07 2011,08:52
Use of tactical nukes suspected in Libya.< http://www.veteranstoday.com/2011....spected > Posted by Malcolm on Mar. 07 2011,10:46
Show me the rads.
Posted by Leisher on Mar. 13 2011,21:52
< Updates on a number of countries. >
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